That Bump Is A Pimple

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Dec. 14-15, 2003. N=525 registered voters nationwide.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Bush 44% (up from 42% pre-Saddam)
Democrat 40% (down from 41%)
Can't Say Until Chosen 8% (11%)
None/Won't Vote 1% (2%)
Don't Know 7% (4%)

With a sample of 525, the margin of error is about ±4.2%. Still, not the gigantic bump everyone's been expecting.