Bush campaign losing financial advantageInvest wisely. Give to Kerry.
By BILL STRAUB
Scripps Howard News Service
April 16, 2004
President Bush's re-election campaign, complicated by the turn of events in Iraq and new questions about his reaction to the terrorist threat, is losing its edge in a key area that few would have predicted - money.
While the Bush campaign still has plenty of cash on hand - it has raised about $180 million - more than $40 million was sunk into a massive television ad buy intended to turn the electoral tide in 18 tossup states. That expenditure, coupled with the recent fundraising success of his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, means the substantial monetary advantage the president once held has all but vanished.
Bush entered the spring with a distinct financial edge. About half of the money collected, $90 million, was targeted for a television ad campaign that, GOP operatives acknowledge, was intended to define Kerry before the Democrat had an opportunity to introduce himself to voters and, hopefully, deal an early knockout blow.
The strategy seemed to be working. The ad campaign started in March, shortly after Kerry won a string of primaries and became his party's presumptive nominee. On March 11, according to Rasmussen Reports, which is running a daily tracking poll of the presidential contest, Bush and Kerry were dead even, each receiving support from 46 percent of those polled.
By March 19, the survey showed Bush with a 47-43 lead. On March 22, Bush topped out at 48 percent.
"The ad campaign was effective," said Bill Schneider, veteran political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "They convinced voters that Kerry was a flip-flopper and a tax raiser who would raise their taxes on gas by 50 cents a gallon."
But it was right about then that events - growing unrest in Iraq, rising gas prices, concern about the jobs picture - caught up with Bush and his edge began to dissipate. Kerry built a substantial lead at one juncture, Rasmussen had the challenger ahead 48-42 on April 2, and the two have traded the top spot since. Five of the seven polls released publicly in April show Kerry ahead.
Having reportedly gone through more than $40 million of the $90 million budgeted for its spring and summer media effort, the Bush campaign finds itself in no better position than when it started. And its once vaunted financial advantage, which had Democrats muttering nervously, is no longer quite so substantial.
Kerry set a new presidential campaign record by raising more than $50 million in the first quarter of 2004, including $38 million in March alone. He also is finding success in April, pulling in $6.5 million in one night in New York City. That means Kerry, who risked being buried in the Bush bombardment, expects to compete and respond to any attack.
Any amount is accepted. Give, Vote, Win.
