Latest National Harris Interactive Online Poll Shows Bush with Two-Point Lead Among Likely Voters
Some unusual things are happening
The latest Harris Poll conducted between September 20 and 26, 2004 shows President George W. Bush with a two-point lead over Senator John Kerry among likely U.S. voters (48% to 46%). This poll was conducted online with the same methods used by Harris Interactive to predict the 2000 elections with great accuracy. The previous Harris Poll conducted two weeks earlier, but conducted by telephone, also found the candidates running neck and neck, with Senator Kerry one point ahead of President Bush among likely voters (Bush 47%, Kerry 48%)..
While these polls show a virtual dead heat (and, of course, a "virtual dead heat" was the correct forecast of the popular vote in 2000), this latest survey by Harris Interactive finds some very peculiar things are going on.
One is that the traditional gender gap - with men leaning more toward Republican candidates and women toward the Democratic candidates - is only a very modest feature of this election, at the moment.
Another, even more surprising, finding emerges from an analysis by education. Normally Democratic candidates win substantial majorities among those with the least education - people who never went to college. Now President Bush does better among this group than he does among those with more education.
Indeed, President Bush leads Senator Kerry by nine points among those with no college education and by six points among those with some college education but no bachelor's degree. Kerry, on the other hand, leads by five percent among those with a college degree and by fully 21 percent among those with post-graduate education.
Strange things seem to be happening, making this something of a topsy-turvy election.
Wednesday, September 29
Harris Poll: The Whole Election's a Flip-Flop!
Well, okay - the term they use is "topsy-turvy." They also found out that Bush appeals to stupid people (eeeediots) and Kerry appeals - in a BIG way - to educated people. Which of course means we reeeeeally have our work cut out for us, Kerry fans...
Posted by Howard Hoffman at 1:08 PM