Thursday, September 23

I Told You Polls Will Make You Crazy

Kerry is Doing Much Better than the Polls State
Accurate voter turnout has not been part of the equation for pollsters.
Recently Pollster John Zogby of Zogby International wrote an article discussing how the Newsweek Poll that showed an 11-point lead for the president after the convention was flawed and deceitful.

Zogby's article stated that, ''If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the (percentage of voters per party) was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000. While party identification can indeed change within the electorate, there is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Democrats will only represent 31% of the total vote this year. In fact, other competitors have gone in the opposite direction. The Los Angeles Times released a poll in June of this year with 38% Democrats and only 25% Republicans. And Gallup's party identification figures have been all over the place."

Unfortunately, the deceitful Newsweek Poll that showed the 11-point "bounce" was because the pollsters at Newsweek polled "38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters". This is very deceitful because the Republicans, in recent history have NOT come even come close to that type of voter turnout. Pollster Scott Rasmussen says the Time Magazine Poll that showed an 11- point bounce after the convention, also over sampled 38% Republicans.

So as you can see, not only is it obscene and not historically accurate to take a poll using 38% Republicans, 31% Democrats, and 31% Independents, it is also inaccurate to take polls based upon what has happened over the last 3 elections. (I.e. 34% Republican, 34% Democrat, 33% Independent). Because based upon the motivations on the right and the left, we could see very high voter turnout on the Democratic and Independent side, and lower turnout on the Republican side.

So don't believe the polls. Just go out and vote.
Thanks, Jer