Thursday, July 1

Well, That's It. We Give Up

Scared ya, didn't I? It's their last prediction that REALLY gives me hope.

Academics Use Formulas to Predict Bush Win

Polls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict elections President Bush is on his way to a sizable win.

Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust economic growth, will win between 53 and 58 percent of the votes cast for him and his Democratic opponent John Kerry.

Their track record for calling election outcomes months in advance has often been surprisingly accurate.

But one glaring error is what the forecasters are perhaps best remembered for: they predicted in 2000 that Democrat Al Gore would win easily, pegging his total at between 53 and 60 percent of the two-party vote. This dealt a fatal blow to the models' credibility, said Thomas Mann, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who has written about election forecasts.